The Standard
The Promise Tracker Standard
How management commitments are recorded and compared with reported outcomes. This methodology defines the five statuses, the timing rules, and the calculations behind the planned Promise Tracker.
Explore an illustrated example
Methodology v1.0 · 4 July 2026
§1
Principles
- Consistent rules. A verdict compares a target the company stated with its reported outcome. The rules below cover numerical comparisons, milestones, and missing disclosures.
- Company-sourced on both sides. The target comes from a company disclosure; so does the reported outcome. SpotValue never substitutes its own estimate for either.
- Cited. Every promise and every verdict carries a source reference to the filing it came from.
- Versioned history. Once a financial year’s promises and verdicts are extracted and validated, they are never edited by hand; corrections happen by re-extraction under a new standard version.
- Reproducible statistics. Hit rates are computed by fixed formulas, disclosed wherever the number is displayed.
§2
What qualifies as a promise
A promise is a company’s commitment to a specific, measurable outcome within a stated timeframe, published through an official channel.
Excluded, always: aspirational statements without a measure (“world-class”, “well positioned”); third-party forecasts; boilerplate risk language; restatements of past facts; and market-wide commentary unless tied to a company-specific measurable target.
Separable commitments are recorded as separate promises: “FY25 production of 20–22 Mt at unit cost of $103–113/t” is two promises, not one.
§3
Eight categories
| Category | Covers |
|---|---|
| Production guidance | Output volumes, sales volumes, utilisation |
| Financial guidance | Revenue, EBITDA, NPAT, margins, unit costs, cost-out programmes |
| Capex | Capital expenditure envelopes, project budgets |
| Capital returns | Dividends, payout ratios, buybacks, capital-management frameworks |
| Strategic milestones | Project delivery, first production, rollouts, approvals sought |
| ESG and regulatory | Emissions targets, safety targets, rehabilitation, undertakings |
| M&A and divestment | Announced transactions and their stated terms and timelines |
| Recovery and turnaround | Explicit recovery commitments after downgrades, incidents, or losses |
§4
Five verdicts
| Mark | Verdict | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| ○ | Open | Not yet due, or awaiting a disclosure that settles the outcome, within the timing rules below. |
| ✓ | Hit | Outcome met or exceeded the target in the favourable direction under the rules below. |
| ✗ | Missed | Outcome fell short of the target, or no resolving disclosure arrived within the allowed reporting period. |
| ~ | Partial | Mixed results that cannot be separated, materially late delivery within the allowed period, or delivery with materially reduced scope. |
| ⟳ | Reframed | Target restated, replaced, or withdrawn before resolution. Kept separate from Hit and Missed, with a link to any replacement target. |
Each promise receives one final verdict under a given methodology version. Corrections follow the versioning process below.
§5
How outcomes are classified
Each promise records its target type and whether a higher or lower result is favourable. These rules determine how the reported outcome is compared with that target.
- Ranges. Within the band, or beyond its favourable bound, is a hit; beyond the adverse bound is a miss.
- Points. Compared within a stated tolerance: ±5% when the company said “approximately”, ±2% when it did not.
- Floors and ceilings. “At least X” and “no more than X” compare directly.
- Milestones. Delivered by the due period is a hit; up to six months late is partial; later, or quietly dropped, is a miss.
- Same basis. The comparison uses the basis the promise specified: statutory or underlying, constant currency, managed or equity share. If the company stops reporting that basis, the promise is reframed, visibly.
- Silence is an outcome. If the due period passes and no disclosure settles the promise within the following full reporting cycle, the verdict is a miss, recorded as not addressed.
§6
Fixed formulas
Open promises are excluded from every rate. Reframes are counted separately and never merged into the hit rate.
assessed = hit + missed + partial hit_rate_% = 100 × (hit + 0.5 × partial) / assessed strict_hit_% = 100 × hit / assessed reframe_rate_% = 100 × reframed / (assessed + reframed)
A rate is displayed only when at least five promises have been assessed; below that, counts are shown instead, because a small samples can give a misleading impression. The formula accompanies the number wherever it appears.
§7
Disclosure and versioning
Historical promises are to be assessed retrospectively against this Standard. Published entries will identify their sources and the methodology version used, so readers can check each comparison.
The Standard is versioned. Changes that could affect a verdict (comparison rules, tolerances, or formulas) require a new version and a change log. Each published record will identify the version used. A downloadable PDF of the methodology is planned for launch.